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Statistical Issues in Prediction: what can be learned for individualized predictive medicine?
Organized by: Leonhard Held (1), Robin Henderson (2) and Ulrich Mansmann (3)(1) Institut für Biostatistik ISPM, Universität Zürich, Hirschengraben 84, 8001, ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND
(2) School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Newcastle, NE1 7RU, NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, GREAT BRITAIN
(3) Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Universität München, Marchioninistr. 15, 81377, MÜNCHEN, GERMANY
Error is unavoidable in prediction. And it is quite common, often sizable, and usually consequential. In a clinical context, especially when dealing with a terminal illness, error in prediction of residual life means that patients and families are misinformed about their illness, that they may take foolish actions as a result, and that they may be given inappropriate or needlesly painful treatments or denied appropriate ones. In meteorology, error in prediction of storm paths or extreme events can have devastating consequences. In finance and economics, major policy decisions are taken on the basis of predictions and forecasts. Rational approaches to reduce and assess error in prediction are presented. Ideas are introduced how to relate these statistical strategies with clinical and medical concepts in particular and how to integrate ideas from apparently different areas.
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